InterSectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

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The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project uses a community-driven modeling effort in order to bring together impact models across sectors and scales for creating consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of different levels of global warming.   The goal is to provide cross-sectoral global impact assessments, which is based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios.  Based on these common background scenarios, a quantitative estimate of impacts using policy-relevant and society-focused metrics, and uncertainties for different sectors and from multiple impact models will be derived.

Hotspots where severe impacts are experienced in two (orange) and three (red) overlapping sectors.

Hotspots where severe impacts are experienced in two (orange) and three (red) overlapping sectors.

Studies of mitigation pathways and strategies show that limiting global warming to 2° is much more ambitious and costly than a 3°.  However, little is known of the quantitative differences between impacts of different levels of global warming, not to mention how impacts in different may interact and potentially amplify one another.

In order to provide an estimate of the differential impacts of climate change,  research is required to improve our fragmented knowledge and large uncertainties. A global, cross-sectoral, quantitative synthesis of climate impacts, including consistent estimates of uncertainties, is missing so far.

Furthermore, a better, quantitative understanding of impacts will enable the derivation of efficient impact emulators, which can in turn be employed to enhance integrated assessment studies.

People

Joshua Elliott | Ian Foster | Michael Glotter | Neil Best | David Kelly

Publications

Gerald C. Nelson et al. "Assessing uncertainty along the climate-crop-economy modeling chain." Submitted to PNAS ISI-MIP special issue, January 2013.
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Nelson Gerald C., Helal Ahammad, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Shinichiro Fujimori, Petr Havlik, Edwina Heyhoe, Page Kyle, Martin von Lampe, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Hans van Meijl, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Christoph Muller, Richard Robertson, Ronald D. Sands, Erwin Schmid, Christoph Schmitz, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, and Dirk Willenbockel. "Assessing uncertainty along the climate-crop-economy modeling chain." Submitted to PNAS ISI-MIP special issue, January 2013.

Franziska Piontek et al. "Leaving the world as we know it: Hotspots of global climate change impacts." Submitted to PNAS ISI-MIP special issue, January 2013.
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Piontek, Franziska, Christoph Muller, Thomas AM Pugh, Douglas B. Clark, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Felipe de Jesus Colon Gonzalez et al. "Leaving the world as we know it: Hotspots of global climate change impacts." Submitted to PNAS ISI-MIP special issue, January 2013.