@Article{Schewe2019,
author={Schewe, Jacob
and Gosling, Simon N.
and Reyer, Christopher
and Zhao, Fang
and Ciais, Philippe
and Elliott, Joshua
and Francois, Louis
and Huber, Veronika
and Lotze, Heike K.
and Seneviratne, Sonia I.
and van Vliet, Michelle T. H.
and Vautard, Robert
and Wada, Yoshihide
and Breuer, Lutz
and B{\"u}chner, Matthias
and Carozza, David A.
and Chang, Jinfeng
and Coll, Marta
and Deryng, Delphine
and de Wit, Allard
and Eddy, Tyler D.
and Folberth, Christian
and Frieler, Katja
and Friend, Andrew D.
and Gerten, Dieter
and Gudmundsson, Lukas
and Hanasaki, Naota
and Ito, Akihiko
and Khabarov, Nikolay
and Kim, Hyungjun
and Lawrence, Peter
and Morfopoulos, Catherine
and M{\"u}ller, Christoph
and M{\"u}ller Schmied, Hannes
and Orth, Ren{\'e}
and Ostberg, Sebastian
and Pokhrel, Yadu
and Pugh, Thomas A. M.
and Sakurai, Gen
and Satoh, Yusuke
and Schmid, Erwin
and Stacke, Tobias
and Steenbeek, Jeroen
and Steinkamp, J{\"o}rg
and Tang, Qiuhong
and Tian, Hanqin
and Tittensor, Derek P.
and Volkholz, Jan
and Wang, Xuhui
and Warszawski, Lila},
title={State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes},
journal={Nature Communications},
year={2019},
month={Mar},
day={01},
volume={10},
number={1},
pages={1005},
abstract={Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.},
issn={2041-1723},
doi={10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6},
url={https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6}
}